The human lifespan has increased dramatically since the 1900s. However, a new study finds that expansion is slowing and suggests we may be close to a ceiling on longevity.
The study, published in the journal Nature Aging, shows that though human longevity is still increasing in developed countries, the rate of that increase is slowing, suggesting our species might be approaching a biological limit.
“We waited three decades to see what actually happened, and so we now know the answer, and that’s what’s in this paper,” said S. Jay Olshansky, lead researcher on the study. “And the answer is exactly as we had predicted.”
Adding, “In 1990, we predicted increases in life expectancy would slow down, and the effects of medical interventions, which we call Band-Aids, would have less and less of an effect on life expectancy. A lot of people disagreed with us. “They said, ‘No, no, NO!’ Advances in medical and life-extending technologies will accelerate and will drag life expectancy along with it.”
To reach their conclusions, the researchers looked at data from 1990 to 2019 on the eight countries with the longest lifespans: Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland. The researchers also included Hong Kong and the United States, even though the average lifespan in the U.S. isn’t close to the top ranking—and it has actually decreased in recent years, per a statement.
Luigi Ferrucci, scientific director at the National Institute on Aging who was not involved in the study, told the New York Times that he doesn’t necessarily agree with its findings. Advances in preventative health could delay the onset of aging-related diseases, potentially lessening the damage “due to the biology of aging,” he says. But he adds that the average life span likely won’t increase if nothing changes.
Ultimately, scientists point out that this study supports shifting efforts toward slowing aging and increasing healthspan, essentially extending the length of time that a person is healthy, not just how long they are breathing.